As I sat down to write this, it occurred to me how great it would be to go back five years; only five years!

Why this came to mind wasn’t just Omicron and all of his attendant Valkyries. There’s so much in the air right now. We could talk about how Brexit continues to shake up export and import markets, or how Mrs. Merkel is a former prime minister or how Mr. Macron looks decidedly wonky.

We might add that Mrs Sturgeon has promised us the thrill of a referendum when Covid passes, which may not happen until I am even older and much greyer. If that weren’t enough, the prospect of a Russian invasion of Ukraine seems to be on the horizon, making the prospects of World War III even more plausible.

How can so many things go wrong, so fast? I bet that’s what Boris Johnson is saying right now too! I haven’t even tried to cover all the issues we all face, but it seems so difficult for a primary production industry to deal with so many things so quickly.

If it weren’t for one or two extenuating circumstances, 2022 would look like a terrible year. For the impoverished and beleaguered food producer, 2021 has been tough enough. For those of you who have navigated your way through the immediate effects of Brexit, while dealing with restaurant closures and a wildly variable market, my heart goes out to you all. And it looks like 2022 is just as tough.

While there is undoubtedly a majority of people who will enjoy Johnson’s discomfiture, one more destabilizing event will only make matters worse. Like Storm Arwen last year, these events beyond our control will have a greater effect on our profitability than many other things.

reasons to hope

A mismanaged and unstable government facing a Covid outbreak and needing the opposition to back its control measures means the government’s ability to focus on the economy is too limited. The UK economy has been badly damaged not only by the Covid measures, but also by a government focused on almost everything except creating a vibrant business environment and a smooth export market.

How can there be hope in the face of this? However, I believe that there are reasons for hope!

The first is that Omicron is spreading extremely quickly through the population – or so we are told. Whether the boosters have a positive effect remains to be seen, but any statistician will tell you that exponential growth can’t last long. Omicron will therefore be a relatively short event, however dramatic it may be. Of course, there will be other variations, but there is limited tolerance for further scrutiny and if a 100-person rebellion in the backseats doesn’t give the government pause, then nothing will.

The question is, can the hospitality industry recover quickly after being the target of all the regulations for the past 18 months? I’m hopeful they will, but it will be a shaky time next year and wholesalers selling to them will have to watch carefully,

The second is that I don’t think the omens of a second Scottish independence referendum are so good. This reassures me, not out of political conviction, but because it would be another destabilizing force.

If we can go a few years without a major economic shift being predicted, then recovery is much more likely. Scotland now needs some uninterrupted time to give its food industry a chance to reassess its markets and for its traditional markets to recover.

Finally, I still have enormous faith in Scottish products, not the least of which is salmon. It remains a flagship product in most markets around the world and therefore it is much easier to re-establish our position than for many other industries around the world. We are extremely good at what we do and our product deserves the reputation it has.

Covid must be a passing phase and one that teaches us how to behave in the face of such viruses. We need to realize that we own the assets that are our children’s bread and butter. If we waste them on meeting our own immediate needs, what will we leave them?

May 2022 be the year we and our governments start focusing on how to pass on a better economy and a better environment to future generations.