For over 40 years my father farmed less than a mile from where the Kaskaskia River met the deep Mississippi in southern Illinois. That meant he had two partners for life: the river and the US Army Corps of Engineers, owners of the levees guarding our corner of the Great American Bottoms.

Dad never argued with the river, but he never stopped arguing with the Corps. “These engineers,” he would say whenever the Corps’ management of levees came up, “not only will tell you the water can rise, they’ll pull out their pencils and prove it.”

I’m beginning to feel the same way about many agricultural economists, our protected servants of calculation and convention.

This revelation came in two recent reports – one commissioned in August 2020 by the House Ag Committee, the other sponsored by the National Pork Producers Council (NPPC) – which defend the market power acquired by American meatpackers in the over the past 30 years.

The studies are a prelude to threatened federal action to reduce packers’ power in livestock, pork and poultry markets. Both analyzes rely heavily on the soft ivy of academia – theory, math and intellectual certainty – and a lubricious, almost condescending, “you-don’t-want-to-hear-this-but” tone, each explaining why packers dominate.

The first is a 10-chapter, 201-page compendium of “reviews” conducted by the Office of the Chief Economist of the United States Department of Agriculture. He hired “policy research centers” to address “current issues in livestock markets, including industry structure, price discovery, buying mandates and barriers to entry… »

Conveniently, the economists at Texas A&M AG who have mounted the shotgun on the project sum up its main conclusions in its preface: to change a system that has allowed livestock producers to capture significant value over the past three decades – we recognize the palpable frustration of many producers across the country.

“In many cases,” he continues, “their frustration apparently stems from the feeling that they are not receiving the prices they think they should be receiving and from the fact that economists often urge caution instead of offering answers. finished”.

Well…that’s interesting. Cattlemen simply feel like they’re ‘not getting the prices (they) think (they) should”, even though they’ve captured ‘significant value’ over the past 30 years . This may be because – and we’re just spitting here – we “economists often simply urge caution instead of offering finite answers”.

On second thought, not really, because we “economists are generally pretty comfortable saying that price discovery is still quite robust…(although) we can’t pinpoint when it would stop being the case”.

So, just to clarify: you’re comfortable until you’re uncomfortable, but you can’t “identify the point” where that discomfort begins.

It was the level of blinding insight that encouraged me to leave agricultural economics for agricultural journalism.

The NPPC report is the shorter pork side of a similar analysis built on years-old data, comparisons to other concentrated industries like breweries and cat food, and a table of pork chop prices. in the world. Combined, all hope to build a case that “meatpacker concentration has not increased significantly over the past 15 years.”

But neither report examines the enormous impact meat packers have had on rural America over the past 30 years. This impact has been undeniable: independent, cash-based livestock and poultry markets, a key element in promoting competition and ensuring that farmers and ranchers receive a fair price, have been virtually wiped out.

When farmers and ranchers demanded answers from their agricultural, political and academic leaders — all of whom have seen their ties to Big Ag deepen over the same period — most responded that these new “efficiencies” were common to “maturing markets”.

And, according to agricultural economists, efficiency in this ball game is all the ball game, down to the last penny per pound you may have to concede to the transnational meat packer to stay in the game even if he kills you.

But do not worry. According to the NPPC’s study of meatpackers, you’ll still get a pork chop almost half the price of any Aussie.

Or, as my father might add, at least until the levee breaks.

Alan Guebert is an agricultural journalist. See past columns on farmandfoodfile.com.