The April decisions of the Monetary Policy Council and the European Central Bank did not change the current level of the cost of money. The main interest rate in Poland – reference – will therefore still be 4.5%, and the one in Euroland – refinancing – will still be 1.0%.
In this arrangement
The situation of Polish borrowers in debt in PLN and EUR did not change, including because of the scale mainly of those paying back housing loans denominated in these currencies. The former have to constantly struggle with the highest interest rates since December 2008, while the latter still benefit from the fact that they are record low. The reference rate for loans in zloty is 3-month money market WIBOR at 4.94%, and for loans in euro, which is 3-month EURIBOR is lower by as much as 4.17 percentage points. and equal to only 0.77%.
There are many indications that the current status quo in the level of money cost, both in Poland and Euroland, may persist for a long time. The Monetary Policy Council, which recently sent a lot of hawkish signals to the market, responding, among others for the latest reading of current inflation (4.3% y / y in February), there are no real interest rate hikes (mainly concerns about the situation on the labor market and the manufacturing sector), similarly to their reduction (from due to fear of price levels, combined with the condition of the zloty).
In turn, the European Central Bank is also unlikely to decide in the near future on any adjustment to the level of interest rates on the euro, because although the situation in the euro area economy has slightly improved, it is still under strong pressure and is burdened with significant threats (for example, record high 10.8% unemployment rate in February), while inflation, while falling in March (preliminary data) to 2.6% y / y, is still not too distant from the one recorded in September-November last year. 3%, far from comfortable from the bank’s point of view.